Big Ten Tournament Odds

John Gasaway (formerly known as 'Big Ten Wonk') has posted Ken Pomeroy's log5 tables for this year's 'Major' Conference Tournaments on Basketball Prospectus. Pomeroy has been using his ratings and "log5" principles to figure probabilities for conference tournaments for a few years now. "log5" originally came from baseball statisticians and has been used to do the same probabilities for the Major League Baseball's playoffs for a while. Anyways, here are the numbers for the Big Ten Tournament, and if you need a further explanation visit John's Basketball Prospectus post. Seed Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Michigan State 100.0 77.3 54.3 33.7 3 Purdue 100.0 82.4 50.7 27.2 2 Illinois 100.0 72.1 35.9 17.2 4 Wisconsin 100.0 59.8 23.7 10.7 5 Ohio State 100.0 40.2 12.6 4.5 8 Minnesota 55.6 13.5 5.9 2.1 7 Michigan 61.1 19.1 6.2 1.9 6 Penn State 84.3 16.9 5.0 1.2 9 Northwestern 44.4 9.1 3.5 1.1 10 IOWA 38.9 8.7 2.1 0.5 11 Indiana 15.7 0.7 0.1 0.003 So you're telling me there's a chance!?! These numbers say Iowa has a 38.9% chance of beating Michigan on Thursday, and a 8.7% chance of winning both Thursday against Michigan and Friday against Illinois. The Hawkeyes have a mere 0.5% chance of running the four-day gauntlet. Nothing too earth shattering. Not many expect Iowa to be around come Saturday let alone earning the Big Ten's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. Nevertheless, HSN will be live blogging however far Iowa does make it this weekend. Join us Thursday for our Live Game Chat, starting at about 1PM over at the BigTenForum.com!